Who Won Repulican Debate

The over- (and under-) performers

How well likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate expected each candidate to perform before the debate versus how well they thought each candidate actually performed

We asked respondents how they expected each candidate to do, and how well they actually did, on a five-point scale from “excellent” to “terrible” and converted each answer to a number on a 1-to-5 scale. “Excellent” was equal to 5, “very good” was equal to 4, “about average” was equal to 3, “poor” was equal to 2 and “terrible” was equal to 1. Scores were then averaged to create overall scores for each candidate. Respondents who answered “don’t know” to the expectations or performance questions were excluded.

According to our poll, likely Republican primary voters who watched at least some of the debate gave DeSantis and Haley the highest marks for their performances. We asked debate watchers to grade each candidate’s performance on a five-point scale from “excellent” to “terrible” and then calculated an average score for each candidate;2Average scores were calculated by assigning a 1-to-5 score to each answer to the expectations and performance questions, where “excellent” was equal to 5, “very good” was equal to 4, “about average” was equal to 3, “poor” was equal to 2 and “terrible” was equal to 1. Scores were then averaged to create overall scores for each candidate. Respondents who answered “don’t know” to the expectations or performance questions were excluded. DeSantis got a 3.4 out of 5, while Haley got a 3.3 out of 5. The two of them also had the highest expectations before the debate, based on a question we asked using the same scale. But while DeSantis largely met expectations (his average expectations score was also a 3.4 out of 5), Haley fell a bit short of them (she had an expectations score of 3.6 out of 5).

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On the other end of the spectrum, debate watchers gave both Christie (2.9 out of 5) and Ramaswamy (2.8 out of 5) below-average scores for their performance. But while Christie slightly outpaced his pre-debate expectations (which were 2.8 out of 5), Ramaswamy significantly underperformed them (his expectations score was 3.1 out of 5). He was very aggressive on stage, to the point of insulting other candidates — he maligned Haley’s intelligence and told Christie to “enjoy a nice meal and get the hell out of this race” — and viewers didn’t seem to like that.

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