Casual bettors might have been shocked to see the point spread for the San Francisco 49ers-Philadelphia Eagles showdown.
A 10-1 Eagles team, at home, relatively healthy, is an underdog. And the line has continued to move San Francisco’s way. The 49ers are a full 3-point favorite at BetMGM.
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If that sounds really rare, it is. The Eagles are the first team that’s 10-1 or better that has a healthy, active quarterback to be a home underdog since at least 1970, according to CBS Sports. There are instances of great teams being underdogs in a season finale as they rest starters. But not this situation.
Veteran bettors understand why the line is what it is.
By now, everyone that pays attention to the NFL knows the narrative on the Eagles. They have a great record and they’re navigating a serious high-wire act. They seem to fall behind in every game and pull out a close win. They have an unsustainable record in close games and when they are behind by double digits. It’s a good team that has a great record because they’re catching every green light.
Meanwhile, the 49ers look great. You can’t just do things like, “Hey, if you ignore their three-game losing streak … ” because that did happen. However, if you did ignore that weird losing streak, we’re talking about the one great team in an otherwise lukewarm season.
Point blank: If you’ve watched every game this season and had to pick just one team to win the Super Bowl, you’d probably pick the 49ers. That doesn’t mean they’re winning a title, but their best looks different than every other team. That includes the Eagles.
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That’s why I’ll go against the first 10-1 or better home underdog in recent history and take the 49ers -3. This is their proving ground. It’s also a small bit of revenge for an NFC championship game loss they feel they should have won if Brock Purdy didn’t hurt his elbow. I believe this is the most dominant team in football. The Eagles have a chance to prove otherwise.
Here are the picks against the spread for Week 13, with odds from BetMGM:
Seahawks (+9) over Cowboys
This is a hard game to pick, for some of the reasons discussed in The Daily Sweat.
Colts (-1) over Titans
The Colts losing Jonathan Taylor to thumb surgery isn’t ideal, but Zack Moss has been solid in his place this season. He can fill in fine. So why else would the Colts be favored by only a point? They’re clearly the better team. Maybe Gardner Minshew II has a bad day and throws the Colts out of the game. But I’m not backing Tennessee against a good team unless I’m getting at least a field goal. And in most games, I’d need much more than that.
Patriots (+6) over Chargers
How Mac Jones has completely and totally fallen apart since a solid rookie season is a longer conversation for another day. But all reports indicate he has finally been replaced by Bailey Zappe. Not that Zappe is good, but teams often rally when the backup gets a start. This isn’t a comfortable pick but let’s also acknowledge that the coaching matchup is as one-sided as it gets.
Lions (-4) over Saints
I’m not overthinking this. The Lions are a far superior team. They will be motivated after losing on Thanksgiving and have extra rest. The Lions have looked bad the last two weeks but I haven’t given up on them being a very good team. It’s also very hard to trust the Saints.
Falcons (-2.5) over Jets
There are a lot of matchups this season in which both sides are not pretty. Do I really want to back a flawed Falcons team on the road against a stellar defense? Nope. But the Jets offense has hit such a low point that I can’t back New York comfortably anymore. Ugh.
Steelers (-5.5) over Cardinals
Here’s the test for the Steelers. If their offense can’t move the ball comfortably on this Cardinals defense, it’s not happening this season. Arizona looked like a Pac-12 (RIP) defense last week against the Rams. Pittsburgh did look better last week on offense, with a new coordinator. This seems like the type of game in which offense will come easy and the Steelers will have fun running it up a bit. And if it’s another struggle, that’s really a bad sign.
Dolphins (-9.5) over Commanders
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Miami is great against bad teams. The Commanders are bad. Their defense is especially bad. I tried Washington getting 13.5 points last week against Dallas, and look how that turned out.
Broncos (+3.5) over Texans
I’m going to pick the Broncos to win straight up, with the points as a bonus. I can’t explain the Broncos’ revival, but it has happened. All of the wins in their five-game winning streak have been against good opponents. Houston is a good team, but I’m riding this Broncos wave at least another week.
Buccaneers (-5.5) over Panthers
I often like to back a team after it fired its coach, but I don’t get the sense Panthers players hated Frank Reich. They’re just a bad team and Reich paid the price for it. The Buccaneers aren’t great, but playing the worst team in the NFL will probably feel pretty good for them.
Rams (-3.5) over Browns
Joe Flacco, who turns 39 in January, hadn’t been with a team since last season ended. On Nov. 20, he signed with the Browns. He seems likely to start for the Browns 13 days after he signed. And he was bad last season with the Jets. Flacco had a good career and the Browns have little to lose, but if the Rams don’t cover against a quarterback who looked finished a year ago and was on his couch until two weeks ago, then shame on them.
Packers (+6) over Chiefs
Green Bay is under-the-radar Denver. The Packers were totally cooked a few weeks ago, and then it just suddenly changed. The Packers look like a totally different team, and the win over the Lions on Thanksgiving was impressive. They have extra rest before facing the Chiefs. They’re at home. A Packers win straight up? I could see it.
Bengals (+8.5) over Jaguars
This game epitomizes the 2023 NFL season. This matchup was supposed to be great. Now it’s not even good because of a quarterback injury. I don’t think Jake Browning was horrible in his first start replacing Joe Burrow. But everyone knows their season is going south fast. I still think they can be competitive in spurts, and will battle on Monday night.
Last week: 9-6-1
Season to date: 87-89-4
Source: https://t-tees.com
Category: WHO
