Each season, as I write my fantasy football draft article, I mention the importance of being flexible during the season when it comes to kickers. Players often come out of nowhere to provide fantasy goodness, like rookie Brandon Aubrey in Dallas and veteran Dustin Hopkins in Cleveland.
On the other side of the coin, kickers who were great in the past, can quickly fall out of grace and be a liability to fantasy rosters, like Harrison Butker in Kansas City and Tyler Bass of the Bills.
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Then there is Justin Tucker. The greatest kicker of all time and the one player who is a must draft and forget it player. Tucker is the only player who I recommend spending up for in the draft and the only one whom I would never consider dropping on a bye week.
As the No. 3 kicker this season, Tucker has finished as a top-five kicker eight out of the last nine seasons, making him the most consistent player at any position in the past decade. As you go into your draft next season and you reach the point where you are deciding between a bench WR and Justin Tucker, my advice to you is to go with Tucker.
And if you miss out on Tucker, be flexible with your kicker next season, and be sure to read this article each week.
- Pat Fitzmaurice’s Weekly Rankings
- Andrew Erickson’s Weekly Rankings
- Derek Brown’s Weekly Rankings
Fantasy Football Week 17 Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice
Week 16 Strong Performances from Widely-Available Kickers
Cameron Dicker (LAC) vs. Buffalo: 47% roster percentage on Yahoo
Dicker the kicker posted a second-place finish on the week with 21 fantasy points. It was the best performance of the year for Dicker, beating his five previous weeks combined. This week against the Broncos does not look like a great matchup based on his K Score, and I would rather go with someone indoors like Ka’imi Fairbairn at home vs. Tennessee.
Chase McLaughlin (TB) vs. Jacksonville: 2% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Only Justin Tucker and Jason Sanders have more fantasy points over the past three weeks than McLaughlin, a player who is almost universally available in leagues. If given a choice between Dicker or McLaughlin this week, I would go with the floor of McLaughlin at home against the Saints.
Week 16 Dud Performances from Heavily-Owned Kickers
Harrison Butker (KC) vs Las Vegas: 95% roster percentage on Yahoo
The Raiders punched the Chiefs in the mouth on Christmas, playing the Grinch to fantasy owners everywhere, especially those who started Patrick Mahomes and Harrison Butker. Butker missed his one try on the day, burning fantasy owners everywhere in what looked like a decent matchup.
Kicker Rankings:
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank seventh in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 24. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 17.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) vs. Tennessee: 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Fairbairn managed just two fantasy points last week at home against the Browns, a team that ranks second in the fewest points allowed to kickers on the year. This week, he gets the Titans at home, the team that has given up the most fantasy points to kickers, and the same team that he posted 17 fantasy points against just two weeks ago. With a K Score of 27 and a home game against a team that is strong in the red zone, Fairbairn could be this year’s Super Bowl stud.
Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Green Bay: 6% roster percentage on Yahoo
Joseph has been a disappointment this season with just four games of ten or more fantasy points. He has been someone who I have avoided at times, but this week at home against the Packers, Joseph will likely outproduce his ECR and finish as a top-12 kicker.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Blake Grupe (NO) @ LA Rams: 7% Rostered
ECR Rank: 12 My Rank: 12 Week 16 Finish: 26
I wrote about how this one did concern me a bit if Derek Carr struggled to keep a positive game script. That proved to be the case, and Grupe was a dud.
Michael Badgley (DET) vs. Minnesota: 3% Rostered
ECR Rank: 17 My Rank: 10 Week 16 Finish: 19
A missed extra-point attempt kept Badgley from finishing tied for 12th on the week. While it might be hard to play Badgley again after a disappointing week, the game against the Cowboys has a huge over under and he could be in line for a nice floor of around eight points.
Source: https://t-tees.com
Category: WHICH
