As the Arizona monsoon season kicks off Thursday — officially running from June 15 until Sept. 15 — the next three months can bring powerful thunderstorms across the region with flash floods caused by increased rainfall.
According to forecasts from the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the first six days of the monsoon are expected to be both very sunny and very hot.
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From Thursday to Monday, high temperatures are expected to stay around the 100-degree mark with most days having low to no chances of rain — a trend expected to last these three months, with a Phoenix meteorologist saying Valley residents will see above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Here’s what you need to know as the monsoon picks up.
Is a monsoon a storm?
A monsoon is not a storm.
A monsoon is described by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research as “a much larger pattern of winds and rain that spans a large geographic area like a continent, or even the entire globe.”
What happens during a monsoon?
This desert weather phenomenon can look very different in an urban environment such as Phoenix, compared with the saguaro-dense hills of the Sonoran Desert.
According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, high pressure in the atmosphere over northern Mexico strengthens and drifts northward during the summer months, which causes a reversal in the weather pattern across the Southwest.
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While storms typically move from west to east in the spring, storms will move from east to west in the summer. This flow causes high levels of moisture to gather in the atmosphere across the desert landscape as tropical air moves north, according to the weather service.
With the combination of summer heat and moisture, conditions are more likely to become more favorable for periodic rain showers and thunderstorms.
Typically, the month of July is the rainiest of the year in Phoenix. About 1 to 1.05 inches of rain is expected. That’s preceded by the driest month of the monsoon, June, which has an average rainfall of 0.02 inches, according to the weather service.
Does the monsoon help reservoirs?
In early March, reservoirs managed by the Salt River Project had to release water from its dams and reservoirs in order to make space for spring runoffs from snowpack. According to Patty Garcia-Likens, senior media relations representative from SRP, this winter was one of the wettest winters in the last couple of decades.
“This winter has proven to be one of the most productive in the last 30 years, filling our six reservoirs on the Salt and Verde rivers,” Garcia-Likens said.
Although most of the water in SRP reservoirs accumulated during the winter, rainfall that comes from the monsoon helps reservoirs maintain a high level of water throughout the year, providing water for the region.
“The summer monsoon can help lessen the decline of our reservoirs as it can lower summer demand, but it doesn’t significantly add to the supply,” Garcia-Likens said.
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As of June 1, 2023, reservoirs administered by the Salt River Project on the Salt and Verde Rivers were reported to be 99% full. Although these reservoirs have provided large amounts of water, officials still urge the population to conserve water.
“It’s important to conserve as water is precious in the desert. Every drop that is stored now can provide water for our customers during the inevitable dry periods,” Garcia-Likens said.
What can be expected this monsoon?
The National Weather Service in Phoenix predicted that most of Arizona is going to have below-normal precipitation during the monsoon with above-normal temperatures, meaning Arizonans can face a hot and dry summer.
Far western areas of the state, such as Kingman and Yuma, have equal chances for above, near or below normal precipitation.
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“For the monsoon season, above normal temperatures are favored this summer with a slight tilt toward slightly below normal precipitation,” said Isaac Smith, National Weather Service-Phoenix meteorologist.
This is an abrupt change from the past two years of wet monsoons that brought record-breaking rain to the state. The monsoon in 2022 tied for the seventh wettest July-September on record with an average rain of 2.23 inches in Phoenix. The 2021 season ranked as the ninth wettest on record, according to the weather service’s data.
Republic reporters Ellie Willard and Raphael Romero Ruiz contributed to this article.
Source: https://t-tees.com
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