When Is Tropical Storm Hitting Florida - T-Tees - Your Answers Await, Life's Questions Unraveled

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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough exits the coast of Africa near 05.5N10W and extends to 02N20W to 01N34W. The ITCZ extends from 01N34W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 11W and 19W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 04N between 21W and 49W.

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Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front has moved S of the basin overnight and extends from the NW Caribbean across northern Belize and into the SE Mexico. A 1023 mb high pressure has settled across NW Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front, producing fair weather and anticyclonic wind flow across the basin. Winds are 15 kt or less across the entire basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the SE half and 2 to 3 ft across the NW half.

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For the forecast, 1023 mb high pressure now resides across the NW Gulf, and will slide E across the northern Gulf through Sun night and then into the Atlc Mon. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend region to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning.

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Caribbean Sea

A cold front has moved SE across the NW Caribbean overnight and extends from eastern Cuba to northern Belize. Broken low cloud and isolated showers are along the front. Broken low to middle level clouds and isolated showers are also across Jamaica and the surrounding waters, and across Puerto Rico extending SW into the nearby waters. Moderate N winds are generally W of 78W, where seas are 2 to 5 ft. A moderate easterly trade wind regime is found east of 75W. Trades are gentle to moderate increasing to moderate to locally fresh closer to the coast of South America and off Colombia. The highest seas in the basin are 6 ft off the coast of Colombia, with generally 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere south of 17N and east of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia through Mon, strongest at nights. The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras Sun evening, then drift SE and extend from the N coast of Hispaniola to Jamaica by late Mon before dissipating across the basin. High pressure will move E-NE across the western Atlantic Mon through Wed night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. Gales are possible each night offshore of Colombia Tue night through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda near 31N62W southwestward through the central Bahamas to the N coast of Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate showers and a few mild thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front N of 26N, with isolated showers farther SW along the front. Strong SW winds and 10 to 13 ft seas are occurring along and within 180 nm E of the front, mainly N of 26N. Fresh SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are E of the front from 25N to 26.5N. To the west of the front, an area of strong to near- gale force WNW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas exists north of 27N and east of 80W. Elsewhere west of the front, fresh WNW to NW winds prevail. Seas are exceeding 8 ft north of 25N between 60W and 79W, with peak seas of 14 ft near 31N65W.

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The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1030 mb high pressure centered S of the Azores near 33.5N28W. A surface ridge extends W from the high pressure to 32N48W. Winds are moderate or weaker with seas 6 to 7 ft within several hundred miles of the surface ridge. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades are generally to the east of 35W to the NW coast of Africa, where seas are 8 to 18 ft in N swell. Trades are moderate to fresh between 35W and 55W and S of 26N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds are found between 55W ad 60W where an old front continues to meander and dissipate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from SE of Bermuda southwestward through the central Bahamas and to E Cuba will move slowly SE through Sun night. Strong SW winds will prevail N of 26N and within 210 E of the cold front through this evening. Behind the front and N of 27N, strong NW winds will prevail through this afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N today. The front will reach from 30N55W to the Windward Passage Mon morning then gradually stall and weaken from 27N55W to the NE coast of Dominican Republic Tue. High pressure will exit Florida Mon and slide E-NE across the W Atlantic through early Wed. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters late Thu.

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Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling

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