When Will The Northern Lights Be Visible In Minnesota - T-Tees - Your Answers Await, Life's Questions Unraveled

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Overview

Use these resources to learn when an aurora display is forecast! Northern Minnesota is one of the best areas to view the Aurora in the continental United States due to its proximity to magnetic north (northern Hudson Bay). This web page lists resources that will help you predict whether the Northern Lights will dance across the skies from 30 minutes to 28 days out from the current time. A map to one of my favorite Northern Lights viewing locations which is a bit north of Duluth may be found at the very bottom of this post.

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Current Aurora Forecast

You are viewing: When Will The Northern Lights Be Visible In Minnesota

Immediate Forecast
- Time frame is the next one hour
- Uses Ovation Aurora … want 45 Ghz or higher in NE Minnesota
Short Term Forecast
- Time frame is the next 3 days or less
- Want Kp index of 5+ in NE Minnesota. Much easier to use recommended app. See below for app recommendation and review.
Anything beyond 72 hours is NOT reliable

Use this tool to convert UT to your local time zone. (UT = Universal Time)

Northern Lights Apps

I recommend using Aurora-Alerts which is available for both Apple and Android devices. See my full review on this blog with screenshots. However, the app provides Aurora forecasts, current conditions, and alerts.

Recommended App: Aurora-Alerts (no financial benefit to me)
Install Links: Aurora-Alerts Web Site
My Review (with screenshots)

Forecasting the Northern Lights!

Long Term Forecast (4 to 28 days from today, not very reliable)
- The Northern Lights tend to follow the 28 day solunar cycle. If there was solar activity at a particular time during the past cycle (28 days ago), long term forecasts will predict similar activity when that region of the sun again points at the earth 28 days later. Long term Aurora forecasts are NOT reliable, but if you are planning a trip and hoping to optimize your viewing chances, this resource from the University of Alaska is worth utilizing. Ultimately you want to see a rating (Kp) of “5” or higher for viewing in Northern Minnesota.
  - 28 Day Advanced Northern Lights Forecast
  - Planning Your Northern Lights Trip (i.e. choosing dates)
Short Term Forecast (1 to 3 days from today, kind of reliable)
- NOAA (The National Weather Service) maintains a graph which tracks Aurora watches and warnings. The page is a bit difficult to understand, but just remember these key points: Watches & Warning are good. Kp of “5” or higher is good.
  - NOAA Aurora Borealis Watches & Warnings
- SpaceWeather Live maintains a forecast for Aurora conditions expected over the next 72 hours. Times are in UTC, which must be converted to your local time zone. For the Central Time Zone UTC varies from local time by 5 or 6 hours (daylight or standard time). Once again, for Northern Minnesota you want a Kp of “5” or higher.
  - SpaceWeather Live 72 Hour Forecast
Immediate Forecast (current to 24 hours, very reliable)
- Ovation Aurora forecasts the likelihood of viewing the Aurora approximately within the next 60 minutes. Upon linking to the site, you will see a image of the northern hemisphere. I like power numbers greater than 50 GW (see upper right hand corner of map). If you see lots of bright colors (reds and oranges), and power readings way above 50 GW, get outside and look north! Pay attention to trends (i.e. increasing or decreasing power numbers noted over a few hours)
  - Ovation Aurora (NOAA)

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Question and Answer: Why are long term forecasts unreliable, but short term forecasts are decent? A short term forecast of 72 hours or less is based upon actual observed current conditions on the surface of the sun. Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) often take up to 72 hours to reach earth. CME’s tend to cause Aurora displays. Measuring CME’s is an inexact science. Obviously it is impossible to stand on the surface of the sun to measure a CME. Questions arise about CME size, strength, direction/angle, etc. NASA and NOAA attempt to measure CME’s using satellites and telescopes. Thus, while short term forecasting is MUCH better than long term forecasts, it is still problematic. Long term forecasts are based upon the last time a particular spot on the sun was pointed towards earth (i.e. something that happened up to 28 days ago in the past)

Immediate Forecasts are very good and use Ovation Aurora which measures current conditions on earth and makes predictions for 20 to 40 minutes in the future.

A Quick Timeout … Would you like to download a free PDF copy of my latest children’s picture book, Do You Hoot? The book is the story of the Amity Owlets. I watched the parents raise triplets recently near my home at the northern edge of Duluth.

Viewing the Aurora Borealis

In order to see the Northern Lights you need dark, cloud free skies with open views to the North and Northeast. Nights with lots of moonlight will tend to “wash out” the aurora. Also avoid areas south of even small towns.

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This graphic is from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration … the U.S. Weather Service). It is NOT a forecast. Instead, assuming other conditions are also favorable it shows the southern limit of where the Northern Lights may be viewed assuming a given Kp forecast.

You will find a map to Boulder Lake near the bottom of this post … a favorite viewing location just north of Duluth, Minnesota.

Dark Skies Map: Open the link and zoom into the desired area. The linked site will help you find truly dark locations, and avoid light pollution. Remember, even in the darkest location, a bright moon makes viewing the Aurora difficult. Check the moon phase!
Google Maps: Public boat launches and lakeshores with open views tend to be great viewing locations. Use Satellite mode, zoom in an really inspect your hoped for viewing location. Better yet, check out areas during the day for open views to the North and Northeast.
- Winter Viewing Locations
Weather: Cloud Forecasts
- Michigan (Upper and Lower Peninsulas)
- Minnesota & NW Wisconsin Region
- United States

Connect With Aurora Enthusiasts (Amateur to Pro)

Facebook Group – Great Lakes Aurora Hunters: Want to learn more about aurora camera settings, or know when the lights are shining over Canada and the Great Lakes region? This Facebook group will hook you up with Northern Lights enthusiasts with a very large geographic focus … the Great Lakes.
Facebook Group – Northern Lights | Lake Superior Region: A smaller, more geographically focused version of the Facebook group listed immediately above!

Photographing the Northern Lights

Northern Minnesota has the best Aurora watching opportunities in the lower forty-eight states. In addition, our region has extensive wilderness where one may escape light pollution found in urban areas which wash out displays. With a little advance planning, it is possible to photograph the Aurora.

Camera Settings: Use these settings as a starting point and then adjust based upon results. Adjust your exposure and ISO settings up or down to affect how much light your camera’s sensor captures. Remember, higher ISO settings yield more noise in your photographs and blow out images by capturing too much light. Finally, the earth is rotating at thousands of miles per hour underneath you. Exposure settings much longer than 20 seconds will tend to smudge your stars and give you star trails. Longer exposure times also make it difficult to capture Aurora spikes or rays. These settings assume little to no moonlight. .
Aperture: 2.0 (or as wide open as possible on your camera)
Exposure: 10 seconds
Focus: infinite
ISO: 2400
White Balance: tungsten or auto
Use of a tripod is a “must”
Use a 2 second shutter release delay