HomeWHENThe Enduring Conflict: Assessing the Fate of the War in Ukraine

The Enduring Conflict: Assessing the Fate of the War in Ukraine

The year 2023 has been a tumultuous one for Ukraine as the nation grapples with the ongoing conflict against Russia. Despite initial optimism and plans for a counteroffensive, disappointment now shrouds the battlefield, leaving troops disheartened and uncertain about the future of Western aid. Throughout the year, various events, such as a short-lived rebellion in Russia, a dam collapse in Ukraine, and the loss of countless lives on both sides, have added to the complexity and gravity of the situation.

Twenty-two months have passed since Russia first invaded Ukraine, and it currently controls approximately one-fifth of the country. Despite the passage of time, the front line spanning about 1,000km (620 miles) has remained largely unchanged. Off the battlefield, Western countries, which have been strong supporters of Ukraine, find themselves increasingly strained in their political deliberations over financial assistance for the war effort.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a patient approach, as he believes that the West’s support for Ukraine will eventually crumble due to political divisions, war fatigue, and other pressing global issues. Putin’s strategy seems to be paying off, as the Russian economy, although affected by Western sanctions, remains resilient. Russian forces also continue to exert significant control on the battlefield, maintaining a series of defensive lines featuring formidable minefields that have effectively halted Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

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Unfortunately, Ukraine’s counteroffensive began prematurely, before its forces were fully prepared. This rushed attempt was meant to showcase the potential impact of Western aid on the course of the war. However, as Marina Miron from the defence studies department of King’s College London explains, the expectations for the counteroffensive were unrealistic, and it ultimately failed to meet its objectives.

Despite the setbacks, Putin achieved a significant victory in May by capturing the city of Bakhmut after a prolonged and brutal battle. This triumph served as a testament to the Russian people following their army’s failed winter offensive, which was unable to capture other Ukrainian cities and towns along the front line. In June, Putin faced a major challenge when the Wagner mercenary group mutinied. However, he swiftly diffused the situation and maintained the loyalty of his armed forces, solidifying his authority.

Nonetheless, Putin has experienced some setbacks. In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him on charges of war crimes, specifically for his alleged personal responsibility in the abductions of children from Ukraine. Consequently, Putin’s ability to travel freely has been severely restricted.

While Ukraine has managed to retake approximately half of the territory lost during Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to the United States, reclaiming more land will prove to be a formidable challenge.

The end of the war in Ukraine remains elusive, mirroring the enduring nature of the conflict. As troops continue to fight, and political deliberations on aid intensify, the international community holds its breath, hoping for a peaceful resolution to this long-standing crisis.

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