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At the 2023 trade deadline, Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland made two moves to strengthen his team for the long playoff road ahead.
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He added veteran defenceman Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators and then made a deal that would have far-reaching implications for the Oilers and the Arizona Coyotes.
To acquire Nick Bjugstad (at a 50 percent salary retention) and minor-league defenceman Cam Dineen, the Oilers sent a 2023 third-round selection and prospect defenceman Mike Kesselring.
At the time, Kesselring was not a highly rated prospect but was scoring goals at an impressive rate for a defender. He had turned the corner as a potential NHL player in the winter of 2021 and was progressing nicely.
By the time he got to Arizona, Kesselring had scored 13 goals in 49 games with the AHL Bakersfield Condors.
This season, Kesselring has emerged as an NHL defenceman for the Coyotes. Puck IQ has him performing well against all levels of competition, including 26 percent of his five-on-five minutes (that’s third pairing) versus elites.
The Oilers don’t have many obvious assets to trade beyond draft picks (the 2024 and 2025 first-round selections holding the highest value) and young defenceman Philip Broberg.
Is there another Kesselring in Edmonton’s system? Is there another player, like Kesselring, that Holland can use as a trade piece?
What is Kesselring?
Kesselring is a right-shot defenceman with a somewhat unusual (but effective) skating style who exploded as a goal scorer in Bakersfield during the 2022-23 season. He also developed as a player who could help his team outscore opponents.
Here’s his final Condors season, split into the first half of the campaign, and then his performance in the second half, leading up to the trade:
He scored a pile of goals early, leading the AHL in goals by a defender from the start. His overall game improved as the season wore along.
Kesselring’s development is a credit to the player, but the organization has established a reputation for developing right-handed blueliners in the AHL.
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Aside from Kesselring, Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear, John Marino and Vincent Desharnais are productive players.
Are there any players in Bakersfield currently who could be used in the same way as Edmonton deployed Kesselring as a trade asset?
Max Wanner
The top candidate is another right-handed defenceman. Wanner is a rookie pro, so not as developed as Kesselring was on the day he was dealt. However, the impressive second half of the 2023-24 season for Wanner is similar.
Wanner is not similar in style to Kesselring, but his skill set does have value. He has a nasty streak to his game and is no fun at all to play against due to his aggressive approach. So far, Wanner has been able to play with an edge while also staying out of the penalty box (which can be an issue for young players).
A team acquiring Wanner would be playing the long game, as he’s probably a year away from his first NHL audition. What we know is that he is spiking in the last 12 games, and his goal share on the Condors is matched only by his most common partner Cam Dineen in those games.
The Oilers may wish to offload older defenders like Markus Niemelainen or Phil Kemp, but based on age and current performance, Wanner is the one trending in the most positive direction.
Tyler Tullio
The young two-way winger is in his second year of pro hockey. His resume includes a range of skills, but his offence isn’t enough for him to receive heavy power-play minutes. Most of his offence comes from even-strength play, and he’s productive.
A year ago, he ranked sixth on the Condors with 10 even-strength goals, a solid number for a rookie. This year, Tullio has seven goals in the game state and trails only three veterans (Raphael Lavoie, Drake Caggiula and Ben Gleason) in the category.
What’s more, his scoring and outscoring have improved in the second half.
Tullio is a player who receives little attention. The beginning of his pro career saw him passed over routinely for a spot in the lineup. The build, though slow, has been impressive. In his most recent games, his on-ice goal share at even strength has been exceptional, and his four even-strength goals in 11 games stand out on a team that is shy in offensive difference-makers outside the power play.
Tullio doesn’t have gaudy scoring numbers, but he’s consistent and reliable, plus he’s 21.
Jayden Grubbe
Grubbe is one of the most impressive rookie forwards seen in Bakersfield over the last five seasons. His impact is not offensive, but he brings enough to project as a middle-six player in the NHL should he get that far. Grubbe is physical, responsible and a load.
Grubbe is a force each evening on a line with AHL forwards Dino Kambeitz and Cameron Wright. It’s a wrecking crew that is no fun at all for opponents.
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His seven even-strength goals in just over half a season show he can cash. Given his size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds), age (20), position (right-handed centre) and quick adjustment to the AHL, Grubbe should be a player of interest to an NHL team at the deadline.
Olivier Rodrigue
Rodrigue took a big step forward last season and built on it in 2023-24. Rodrigue’s emergence as a bona fide NHL prospect runs against the Oilers history, and is shocking coming on the heels of Stuart Skinner’s successful development.
Are the Oilers suddenly good at developing goalies? Here are Rodrigue’s splits.
The totals may not look impressive, but the six games played recently excluded defenceman Philip Broberg in five of the six contests. In the one game Bakersfield’s impact defenceman played in front of Rodrigue, he stopped 40 of 42 for the win.
Rodrigue will be eligible for waivers in the fall; Holland may be more willing to include him in a deal at the deadline. He’s legit.
The rest
The Oilers have a first- and second-round selection for the 2024 draft and next season’s second-round pick. Along with Broberg and young winger Dylan Holloway, those assets represent the top end of the asset pool the club has to offer at the deadline.
Holland must offload cap money to make deals; some trading of young players as a sweetener may be required.
Names like Raphael Lavoie and Xavier Bourgault get mentioned often, but teams have minor-league scorers and struggling first-round picks of their own.
The Kesselring trade came due to the Coyotes valuing a breaking talent, a righty defenceman who elevated his game across 200 feet and was worth acquiring in a deal that took on money.
Holland doesn’t have a player as dynamic as Kesselring (who scored another goal against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday) at the AHL level this season.
A team that comes calling for Lavoie will have very little time to assess and develop him. Lavoie is in his fourth minor-league season and is 23.
This year’s Kesselring? Wanner, Tullio, Grubbe or Rodrigue. All four men are making real progress, right now.
(Photo of Tyler Tullio: Brett Holmes / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Source: https://t-tees.com
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