If the Green Bay Packers defeat the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Lambeau Field, they’ll be headed for the playoffs in Jordan Love’s first full season as a starting NFL quarterback. It’s no easy task, but if it comes to pass, who’ll be waiting in the postseason?
There are three possible opponents awaiting the Packers − Dallas, Detroit and Philadelphia − and any Packers playoff game would take place on the road.
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Editor’s note: This is updated to reflect the possibility of a Tampa Bay loss contributing to the Packers making the playoffs with a loss.
Here are the games that matter for Green Bay on Sunday
- Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit Lions (11-5), noon
- Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans Saints (8-8), noon*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Carolina Panthers (2-14), noon**
- Chicago Bears (7-9) at Green Bay Packers (8-8), 3:25 p.m.
- Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Washington Commanders (4-12), 3:25 p.m.
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11), 3:25 p.m.
- Seattle Seahawks (8-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-12), 3:25 p.m.*
- Los Angeles Rams (9-7) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4), 3:25 p.m.
*Only relevant for longshot scenario where Packers could get into the playoffs with a loss to Chicago.
** Only matters in the instance that Atlanta, Minnesota and Seattle all lose.
The scenario where the Packers lose to Chicago and still make the playoffs
Yes, the Packers can still reach the playoffs with a loss to the Bears, but they may already know that it’s rendered impossible by kickoff at Lambeau.
For that to work out, the Packers would need Minnesota to lose to Detroit, Seattle to lose to Arizona and New Orleans to lose to Atlanta. Though the Falcons and Bears would wind up tied at 8-9 with the Packers, Seahawks and Saints, the tiebreakers would give the Packers the No. 7 seed. Green Bay could still face Detroit, Philadelphia or Dallas in that scenario.
There’s one caveat to that; the Buccaneers suffering a surprising loss to Carolina would negate a Saints win (though Seattle and Minnesota would still need to lose). In that case, the Saints win the South, and Tampa Bay, Chicago, Green Bay and Seattle all end up tied at 8-9 for the No. 7 spot. The Packers will win a divisional tie over Chicago and beat out Tampa Bay and Seattle by virtue of a better strength of victory.
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But for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume the Packers defeat Chicago to earn a playoff berth the easier way.
Here’s why the Los Angeles Rams still matter to the Green Bay Packers
If the Los Angeles Rams lose and Green Bay wins, the Packers will have the No. 6 seed, owning the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two squads. If the Rams win, then the best the Packers can do is the No. 7.
The likeliest scenario ‘mathematically’: Detroit Lions
If you imagine each win as a genuine 50/50 coin flip, then the Packers have the best chance of facing Detroit, with 8 of 16 possible scenarios (a combination of outcomes from games involving Detroit, Philadelphia, Dallas and the Rams) leading the Packers to Ford Field.
The Packers defeated the Lions on Thanksgiving after taking a lopsided loss at Lambeau Field early in the season.
Last year, the Packers went into the final game of the season at home against an ascendant Lions team and took a season-ending loss, and Detroit has catapulted forward from that win to run away with the NFC North.
But the Packers played one of their best games of the year at Ford Field, a moment that definitively showed Green Bay could be a playoff team. Detroit possesses one of the top-five scoring offenses in the NFL.
If Green Bay wins Sunday, it’ll face Detroit if …
- The Rams lose and Dallas wins.
- The Rams and Dallas both lose, and Philadelphia wins.
- The Rams, Dallas, Philadelphia and Detroit all lose.
- The Rams win, Dallas loses, Philadelphia loses and Detroit wins.
Also pretty likely: Dallas Cowboys
The juicy story line is irresistible.
Mike McCarthy, who coached the Packers from 2006 to 2018, has Dallas humming along and looking to lock down the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Dallas can’t catch San Francisco for the No. 1 seed, but a win over Washington on Sunday (kicking off at the same time as Green Bay) will lock up the NFC East.
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Since McCarthy was hired by Dallas in 2020, he has squared off with the Packers once: Mason Crosby’s overtime field goal gave the Packers a 31-28 win at Lambeau Field on Nov. 13, 2022.
McCarthy was, of course, on the sideline leading Green Bay each of the past two occasions the Packers played a postseason game in Dallas. That includes a thrilling win over the top-seeded Cowboys in the 2016 postseason; again, Crosby hit the game-winner. It also includes Super Bowl XLV against the Steelers.
The Cowboys would be the foe in six of the 16 possible scenarios, but that’s assuming a coin flip for each game. If Dallas beats Washington as most would expect (the Commanders, after all, yield a league-worst 30 points per game, and the Cowboys have a top-three scoring offense), then it comes down entirely to what the Rams do.
If Green Bay wins Sunday, it’ll face Dallas if …
- The Rams win and Dallas wins.
- The Rams win and Dallas, Philadelphia and Detroit all lose.
- The Rams, Dallas and Philadelphia all lose, and Detroit wins.
The long shot: Philadelphia Eagles
The least-likely scenario is this one, because it requires Dallas to lose to Washington and requires three different games to go a certain way. There are only two out of 16 possible scenarios involving the four aforementioned teams that can trigger this outcome.
The Packers haven’t faced Philadelphia this year but do have two famous visits in the postseason, the “4th and 26” debacle to cap the crazy 2003 postseason and a win in the wild-card round in 2010, jumpstarting a run to the Super Bowl championship.
The Eagles are an attractive first-round draw after a late-season skid that has included four losses in the past five games, including a setback against struggling Arizona in Week 17. The one win, a 33-25 squeaker over the New York Giants in Philadelphia, nearly went the Giants’ way in the final moments.
The Eagles face the Giants again to close the season, this time on the road. To win the NFC East, the Eagles need to win and hope Dallas loses in Washington.
If Green Bay wins Sunday, it’ll face Philadelphia if …
- The Rams win, Dallas loses and Philadelphia wins.
Source: https://t-tees.com
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