With the Green Bay Packers now at 5-6 and suddenly within reach of a playoff spot in the NFC, many fans surely are turning their attention to what needs to happen for the Packers to reach the postseason.
Yes, it may require Packers fans to (sigh) pull for the Chicago Bears. At least in the short term, when Chicago and Minnesota square off on Monday Night Football.
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Here’s what you need to know.
Current NFL standings have Packers just on the outside of the playoffs
Seven NFC teams make the playoffs, and right now the Minnesota Vikings (6-5) and Seattle Seahawks (6-5) are most vulnerable with the sixth and seventh playoff seeds, respectively.
- Philadelphia (10-1) — NFC East leader
- San Francisco (8-3) — NFC West leader
- Detroit (8-3) — NFC North leader
- Atlanta (5-6) — NFC South leader
- Dallas (8-3) — first wild card
- Minnesota (6-5) — second wild card
- Seattle (6-5) — third wild card
Outside looking in: Green Bay (5-6), Los Angeles Rams (5-6), New Orleans (5-6), Tampa Bay (4-7).
If the Packers run the table and win the rest of their games, will that guarantee a playoff spot?
We can’t say that just yet (though maybe by the end of the night), but do you really expect an 11-6 team to miss the playoffs?
If Green Bay wins its final six games to move to 11-6, it will obviously have a great case. Already owning head-to-head tiebreakers over the Rams and Saints, the Packers wouldn’t have to worry about the teams with which they’re currently tied under this scenario.
A Packers winning streak to close the season would mean a win over Minnesota so, at worst, the Packers would tie with the Vikings for a seventh and final playoff spot.
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But Minnesota would have the tiebreaker in the (unlikely) world where the Packers and Vikings both finish 11-6 for a final playoff berth. Already 2-0 in divisional play (whereas the Packers are 2-2), the Vikings would finish with a better North record than the Packers, even if Green Bay won the rematch between the teams (thus splitting the head-to-head tiebreaker).
Seattle, Dallas and Detroit could all still win enough to stay ahead of the Packers, so we can’t yet say definitively that winning out will clinch a playoff spot for the Packers.
But considering two teams with at least seven losses have made the NFC playoffs in each of the past two years under the current playoff format, and an 8-8 Bears team made it the year before that, don’t expect an 11-6 team to sit out the postseason.
What’s left on the schedule for Minnesota and Seattle?
Since Green Bay’s likeliest path to a playoff berth means bypassing Minnesota or Seattle, it’s worth noting what’s left on the docket.
Seattle has a brutal remaining schedule, with four of its six remaining games against teams that are currently slotted in playoff spots. Minnesota has two remaining games against the Lions but otherwise only teams with losing records on the docket.
But on composite, Green Bay has the softest remaining schedule of the three, with opponents combining for a 39% win percentage. That’s compared to 51% for Minnesota and 58% for Seattle.
- Minnesota remaining schedule: vs. Chicago (3-8), at Las Vegas (5-7), at Cincinnati (5-6), vs. Detroit (8-3), vs. Green Bay (5-6), at Detroit (8-3)
- Seattle remaining schedule: at Dallas (8-3), at San Francisco (8-3), vs. Philadelphia (10-1), at Tennessee (4-7), vs. Pittsburgh (7-4), at Arizona (2-10)
- Green Bay remaining schedule: vs. Kansas City (8-3), at New York Giants (4-8), vs. Tampa Bay (4-7), at Carolina (1-10), at Minnesota (6-5), vs. Chicago (3-8)
Because the Packers are likely to lose at least one more game, it’s also worth keeping an eye on teams like Atlanta, New Orleans, the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay, all of whom could linger in the wild-card picture. The Packers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints and Rams and still could get one this year against the Buccaneers. In the current standings, the Falcons are in first place in the NFC South and not a wild-card consideration.
But that’s obviously subject to change; after all, Atlanta holds that spot only because it just scored a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Saints. Atlanta has a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Packers, so Green Bay would just as soon see Atlanta take charge of the South and not have to worry about jockeying for a wild card.
Let’s say the Packers lose to the Chiefs but win the rest; how good are their odds then?
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It’s probably a scenario you’ve considered; Green Bay losing to Kansas City on Sunday but winning the rest of their games to finish 10-7.
Again, that’s safely a playoff record if we use the past couple of years as a guide. But the Packers do need the Rams to lose at least once more to stay out of the way and need the Saints to lose once more while Atlanta maintains its spot in the South. Plus, either Seattle or Minnesota must lose twice more (Green Bay can beat Minnesota once) just to draw even.
Again, Minnesota already has a big leg up on Green Bay in the tiebreaker (division record), but Seattle would be vulnerable if the teams finished with the same 10-7 record.
Seattle sits at 5-3 in the NFC with four games left, compared to Green Bay at 4-3 with five games left. That’s the first tiebreaker between two teams that aren’t in the same division (and haven’t played each other). However, in our scenario where this tiebreaker matters, the Packers have finished 9-3 in division games (losing to the Chiefs and then winning out), while Seattle can max out at 9-3. If the teams are tied there, it comes down to record in games against mutual opponents. Seattle would be 3-3 in this scenario and the Packers would be 4-2.
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Bottom line: What are Packers fans cheering for (aside from Packers wins, of course)
It’s pretty simple. Green Bay prefers Minnesota, Seattle, New Orleans, the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta to lose, especially against NFC opponents.
There isn’t much nuance to it. Outside of maybe Dallas against Seattle on Thursday (if you think the Packers can still catch the Cowboys) or Minnesota against Detroit later this year (if you think the Packers can still win the North), a rooting interest will be easily identified going forward, with the door always open for later complications. The upcoming schedule will dictate how to feel (or if to feel anything at all) about the Saints-Rams game Dec. 21.
On Monday night, if the Bears beat the Vikings, then Green Bay will know that it can control its own destiny, meaning it can secure a playoff spot if it wins the rest of its games.
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