Against all odds, Donald Trump is back on top. The Donald remains the favorite on the US presidential elections board at -110, with Joe Biden right behind at +140.
Trump has dominated the Republican primaries and with Nikki Haley finally conceding after Super Tuesday, his final rival within the GOP has been officially vanquished. Trump is now the odds-on favorite to win the election against Biden, whose administration is struggling with domestic and international issues.
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However, there is a sleeper lurking in the background with former First Lady Michelle Obama now in third place at +1,600. With a rematch between Trump and Biden looking inevitable, the field has narrowed, so let’s look at the 2024 election odds and see who has the highest probability of becoming the next president of the United States.
2024 presidential election betting odds
To give context to the next election odds, we’ve provided the implied probability along with each candidate’s odds to become the next president of the United States in 2024.
Candidate Odds to win 2024 US election at Implied probability 
Donald Trump -110 52.4% 
Joe Biden +140 41.7% Michelle Obama +1,600 5.9% Robert Kennedy Jr. +2,200 4.3% Gavin Newsom +2,500 3.8% Kamala Harris +3,300 2.9% Gretchen Whitmer +8,000 1.2% Nikki Haley +8,000 1.2% Dean Phillips +8,000 1.2% Elizabeth Warren +12,500 0.8% Tim Scott +15,000 0.66% Hillary Clinton +15,000 0.66% Jay Robert Pritzker +20,000 0.5% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +20,000 0.5% Pete Buttigieg +30,000 0.3% Susan Rice +30,000 0.3% Cornel West +50,000 0.2% Jill Stein +50,000 0.2% Marianne Williamson +50,000 0.2% Ryan Binkley +50,000 0.2%
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 22, 2024.
Latest Presidential Election odds updates 2024
Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election
Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.
Those odds have seen a ton of movement with Gavin Newsom now in fifth place at +2,500, while former First Lady Michelle Obama is in third place at +1,600 despite not formally campaigning or announcing any intention of running for office.
After dropping to third, Biden is back in second at +140, while Harris has plummeted all the way to the sixth spot at +3,300.
Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Trump has surged to the top of the presidential odds board at -110 (up from +250 last summer) despite defending himself in four separate trials.
Many thought those legal problems would derail Trump’s campaign but the Supreme Court, in a unanimous decision, ruled in his favor on a 14th Amendment case in Colorado. Other trials have been delayed, raising doubts about whether they will reach verdicts before Election Day.
Trump has a stranglehold on the Republican party which has become clear after winning 14 of 15 states on Super Tuesday and pulling off lopsided victories in most of the primaries.
The other candidates dropped out months ago with many endorsing Trump, and Haley was the final pin to fall. In fact, most books have pulled their odds for the Republican party nominee due to Trump having such a commanding lead.
A recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College gave Trump a lead of five percentage points over Biden while Smarkets gives Trump a 48.08% chance of winning back the White House — nearly 15 points higher than Biden.
Although polls are hardly fool-proof, this isn’t a good sign for the Democratic party. Democrats won the popular vote in the 2016 election cycle but still lost to Trump because of key battleground states. If Trump is able to win the popular vote this time, a victory in the general election would be all but assured.
Joe Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Biden’s odds moved from +150 at the beginning of September to +200 in November and they are now at +140 in March. Despite a growing problem at the border and his stance towards the Israel-Palestine conflict, the current president has seen a boost in the economy which has helped alleviate fears about a possible recession.
Biden’s current approval rating of 37.93%, according to FiveThirtyEight, is significantly lower than what it was last year (42%). However, Biden’s latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him a 33.3% chance of being re-elected in 2024, a significant bump from the 26.3% probability it was at just last month.
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With Biden’s election odds sitting at +140 and the Democrats currently at +110 to be the winning party there is betting value on the incumbent president. A sitting president has never been defeated by a primary challenger and the Democrat party won’t be changing horses midstream. Short of a health issue, Biden will remain the Democrat party nominee for the next election cycle.
Biden is now -500 to be his party’s candidate in 2024 — an implied probability of 83.3%. It’s also worth noting the two closest Democrats to him on the betting board have insisted that they don’t intend to run.
Michelle Obama’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Former First Lady Michelle Obama’s presidential odds are the third-shortest at +1,600. That’s a bit shocking considering that she hasn’t publicly shown any interest in the position and has in the past rejected the notion of even going into politics. However, there’s growing concern within the Democrat party that Biden might not have what it takes to win the 2024 and that they’ll need a different candidate to energize the voter base.
Obama would be exactly that kind of candidate and there are rumors that her husband is already speaking to Democrat donors about a possible run by his wife. Those rumors have been fueled by an opinion piece in the New York Post from Cindy Adams who claims that the plan is for Biden to step aside citing health concerns and hand over reigns to Michelle at the Democrat convention in August.
It’s a fun conspiracy theory to believe in, especially for those that believe that Obama is far more electable than Biden, but it seems like a storyline from House of Cards as opposed to real life. It’s also worth mentioning that Adams is a 93-year-old gossip columnist and this might be nothing more than click bait.
That said, as long as the public believes in this narrative enough to bet on it, we could see sportsbooks adjust their odds on Michelle Obama to make up for liability.
Nikki Haley’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Nikki Haley officially dropped out of the Republican race after crushing defeats on Super Tuesday, but she remains on the election odds board as a massive longshot at +8,000. The governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, and a former ambassador to the United Nations, Haley has a national profile and plenty of political experience which led to her running for the nomination.
Haley aimed to tap into the Never-Trumpers within the conservative base as well as win voters across the aisle. However, members of the MAGA movement were opposed to her more moderate stances. In fact, while she won Vermont and D.C. that only reinforced her reputation as an “establishment conservative” with right-wingers deriding her victory in the political swamp of Washington.
With Haley still on the board, oddsmakers are likely bracing for liability in case Trump’s legal issues catch up to him or he has a health scare — after all, at 77-years-old he isn’t much younger than Biden.
Gavin Newsom’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Newsom has been one of the biggest movers on the board, surging from +6,000 at the start of 2023 all the way to +600 in the fall.
However, the Governor of California said he wouldn’t challenge Biden last November and there’s been no indication that he has changed his mind which has seen his odds move to +2,500. Although Newsom has been setting up multiple committees to help with possible fund-raising efforts, it’s more likely that the 55-year-old building up his war chest in anticipation of a 2028 run.
While Newsom was seen as a very real possibility last year, a surprisingly strong performance by the Democrats in the midterms quieted that speculation. With Smarkets giving him just a 4.55% chance of winning and Newsom continuing to deny he will run this cycle, betting anywhere in this range is not advisable.
Robert Kennedy Jr.’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
The 69-year-old scion of the prestigious Kennedy family, was the flavor of the month last spring when he announced he would run for the Democratic Party nomination. He surged all the way up to +900 on the presidential odds board following interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan but it soon became apparent that many of his supporters were conservative-leaning and he had no chance of actually winning the party leadership.
After plummeting in polls, RFK Jr. announced in October that he would run as an independent and he currently sits at +2,200. Considering that no third-party candidate has even come close to being competitive in an election (Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was the best showing from an independent in the last century), fade the polarizing Kennedy at any price.
Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Harris has seen her odds sink to +3,300 after being the favorite early on in Biden’s presidency. The Smarkets exchange gives her just a 3.45% chance of winning the presidency, lower than Obama and Newsom.
Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and has struggled to break ground with her two biggest projects: border migration and national voting reform. Her approval rating sits at just 36.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, which is at least a massive improvement from her comically low approval rate of 29% in November of 2021.
2024 presidential election Republican candidates odds
It may seem hard to believe given his mounting legal challenges, but Donald Trump remains firmly in the driver’s seat to earn his party’s nomination yet again.
Nomination Winner Implied probability Donald Trump -5,000 98% Nikki Haley +1,400 6.7% Ryan Binkley +30,000 0.3%
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Take a deeper dive into this year’s heated race with our Republican party nominee odds page.
2024 presidential election Democratic candidates odds
Nomination Winner Implied probability Joe Biden -500 83.3% Gavin Newsom +900 10% Michelle Obama +1,000 9.1% Kamala Harris +1,200 7.7% Dean Phillips +5,000 2% Elizabeth Warren +5,000 2% Gretchen Whitmer +5,000 2% Hillary Clinton +8,000 1.2% Robert Kennedy Jr. +12,500 0.8% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +15,000 0.7% Susan Rice +20,000 0.5% Pete Buttigieg +30,000 0.3% Marianne Williamson +40,000 0.2%
Joe Biden’s 2024 re-election odds
Barring ill-health, Joe Biden is a lock to secure his party’s nomination at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer. Winning the general election is a different matter altogether. The 81 year old has consistently trailed Trump on the odds board since December 2023 despite overseeing America’s steady economic growth and steering the country away from a widely anticipated recession. In spite of his efforts, only 39% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as the nation’s commander-in-chief.
Take a deeper dive into this year’s hotly contested race with our Democratic party nominee odds page.
Presidential election odds: non-political candidates
Candidate Odds to win 2024 US election Implied probability Tucker Carlson +40,000 0.2% Mark Cuban +50,000 0.2% Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +100,000 0.1% Oprah Winfrey +100,000 0.1% Kanye West +100,000 0.1%
Odds as of March 15, 2024.
Winning party odds
Gender Implied probability Republican -120 54.5% Democrats +105 48.8% Independent +2,500 3.8%
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 22, 2024.
Gender of next presidential election winner
Gender Implied probability Male -5,000 98% Female +1,200 7.7%
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 22, 2024.
As the United States gears up for its next presidential election, the gender odds are heavily skewed towards male candidates, given the dominance of figures like Biden and Trump in recent political action. Historically, the presidency has been a predominantly male domain, with only one woman having secured a major party’s nomination in 2016 when the Democratic party tabbed Hillary Clinton. However, the landscape may be shifting, as notable female contenders emerge with strong campaigns. Additionally, the potential looming presence of Michelle Obama in the race could shake things up from traditional gender dynamics and offer a viable path to the presidency for women.
While the odds may still favor male candidates, the upcoming election holds promise for female contenders to have a chance. Nikki Haley’s campaign, with its strategic positioning and widespread support, stands as a testament to the increasing acceptance of women in leadership roles within the political world. Michelle Obama could also shake things up, if she chooses to formally run for office. Her popularity and progressive vision could provide a different perspective and steer the US away from traditional political norms. As the United States confronts pressing challenges and seeks fresh leadership, there is potential for a transformative moment in American political history.
US presidential election winners
Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).
US presidential election trends
- Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
- The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
- A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
- James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.
2020 US Electoral map
This map visualizes the distribution of electoral votes for each state in the 2020 US Election. Republican wins are denoted by red states, while Democratic wins are represented by blue states. Explore the map to discover both popular vote and electoral vote figures by hovering over each state.
2020 voter turnout map
This interactive map provides insight into the voter turnout rates during the 2020 US Election. Hover over individual states to reveal precise percentage figures, with darker colors indicating higher voter turnout rates. Minnesota led all state with an impressive 80% turnout, while only 55% of eligible voters in Oklahoma showed up to the polls to cast a ballot.
2024 US presidential election key upcoming dates
Date Event March 5, 2024 Super Tuesday July 15-18, 2024 Republican National Convention August 19-22, 2024 Democratic National Convention November 5, 2024 Election Day
Betting on the election in the United States
No U.S. states allow for election betting, so legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans.
Betting on the US election from Canada
Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.
US election betting odds FAQs
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