Now, Panera Brands is said to be headed to the public market, with an initial offering of stock anticipated next year — an open-secret goal of JAB Holding Co., the investment arm of a wealthy German family that buys companies with name recognition and growth potential, polishes them a bit, then off-loads them in a sale or takes them public.

The handwriting was on the wall for an IPO, or initial public offering, when Panera Brands debuted in mid-2021, bringing together Panera Bread, Einstein Bros. Bagels (where Bruegger’s and other bagel chains are housed) and Caribou Coffee, all formerly stand-alone companies acquired by JAB between 2013 and 2017.

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Together, they encompass more than 3,800 eateries that rang up $4.8 billion in fiscal 2022 sales.

Then, in May, Panera Brands shuffled its executive suite, creating the “next generation of CEO leadership and board governance in preparation for its eventual IPO,” according to a news release, revealing names with deep roots in the restaurant and hospitality fields.

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Last month, another IPO-prep step was divined in the layoff of some 300 corporate staff. And earlier this month, the Financial Times touched off a media frenzy by reporting that Panera Brands had made a confidential filing for an IPO.

This won’t be the first stock market listing for the fast-casual restaurants — all were publicly traded firms before JAB acquired them. In fact, JAB paid $7.5 billion to take Panera Bread private in 2017.

And this also won’t be JAB’s first attempt to IPO the trio, in late 2021, Panera Brands announced pursuit of a public listing through a so-called special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, a vehicle that raises capital through an IPO to buy an existing company in lieu of that firm doing its own IPO.

However, the planned SPAC with well-known restauranteur Danny Meyer, chairman of Shake Shack, was called off last summer due to “unfavorable market conditions,” according to the parties.

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To be sure, the IPO market has been lackluster of late, but investment firm Goldman Sachs suggests in an outlook on 2024 that it will improve next year, “especially if the Fed starts cutting [interest] rates,” as is expected.

A contributor to investor site The Motley Fool fondly recalled Panera Bread’s solid returns before as a public company, but cautioned the same shouldn’t be anticipated with Panera Brands.

Doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation modeled on Krispy Kreme, the doughnut chain JAB took public in mid-2021, he posited that a Panera Brands IPO could be “quite pricey” depending on how JAB intends to recoup its investments in the fast-casual restaurants.

But, he wrote, “returns can still be good for investors who don’t overpay for a stake.”

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