Who Should I Start Week 10 Fantasy Football - T-Tees - Your Answers Await, Life's Questions Unraveled

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Welcome to Week 10, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

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We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 10 Quarterback Start/Sit Grades

Gardner Minshew: Since assuming the starting role in Week 6, Minshew has only one top 12 fantasy finish (QB3 in Week 7). Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Minshew is 23rd in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, and 29th in highly accurate throw rate. All of these QB2-worthy metrics line up with his 22nd ranking in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 6, the Patriots have been a below-average pass defense. In this timeframe, they have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the fourth-most passing yards per game. Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points via passing. Minshew is a solid QB2 who could flirt with top-12 numbers this week. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Mac Jones: Jones is the QB30 in fantasy with only two QB1 weeks on his resume this season. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 27th in passing grade, 30th in yards per attempt, and 29th in adjusted completion rate. Jones is no more than another low-end QB2 this week in a bad matchup. Since Week 6, Indy has been a tough pass defense to lock horns with. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, sixth-lowest passer rating, and the 13th-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Derek Carr: Carr has begun to find his footing in this offense with three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB9, QB10, QB11). Since Week 6, Carr has been 11th in passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. He faces a Minnesota pass defense that has been impressive the last few weeks. Since Week 5, they have operated with the seventh-highest rate of zone coverage (76.9%), allowing the 11th-lowest fantasy points per dropback. They have also given up the 12th-lowest yards per attempt and tenth-lowest passer rating. During this stretch, they have been only 22nd in pressure rate. They continue to lead the NFL in blitz rate (51.3%). Against the blitz, Carr ranks 20th in passing grade and 24th in adjusted completion rate with the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Josh Dobbs: Last week, with zero practice time with the team, Dobbs came off the bench to rank 17th in passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate among 28 qualifying quarterbacks. I will not take anything away from Dobbs because what he accomplished last week was not only improbable, but it was incredible despite his deeper metrics lagging. The 66 rushing yards and one score he rolled up on the ground definitely helped save his fantasy day, though. The Saints won’t be nearly as giving as the Falcons were, though. Since Week 5, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-lowest passer rating and yards per attempt while also boasting the lowest adjusted completion rate given up. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Jordan Love: Love is the QB15 in fantasy, but that doesn’t accurately reflect his recent play. Since Week 5, he has finished as the QB15 or higher only twice. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is 24th in passing grade, 25th in yards per attempt, and 34th in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 5, the Steelers have clamped down on quarterbacks with the lowest passing touchdowns allowed, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-fewest fantasy points via passing permitted. The Steelers can also get after the quarterback, which has been Love’s kryptonite. Pittsburgh is third in blitz rate and sixth in pressure rate. Against pressure, Love has the tenth-lowest passing grade and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is a basement-level QB2. He has zero QB1 finishes this season and hasn’t been better than QB15 in any week. He hasn’t passed for at least 250 yards in any game this season and has only one outing with multiple passing touchdowns. Even in Superflex, you can probably get more production by starting a positional player over Pickett. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

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Week 10 Wide Receiver Start/Sit Grades

Christian Watson: With Love struggling, this entire passing offense has been hampered. Since Watson has returned to a full-time role, he has had a 17.1% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 1.81 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. He has only two red zone targets over his last four games while noting that both came in Week 8. Over the last two weeks, the Steelers have allowed Joey Porter Jr. (28.6% catch rate and 46.3 passer rating) to shadow as he followed Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins on 50-76.5% for their routes allowing an average of only 36 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. Don’t expect Watson to do much this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4

Romeo Doubs: Since Watson’s return to the lineup in a full-time capacity, Doubs has only a 16.3% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, 0.81 YPRR, and an 18.4% first-read share. Since Week 5, Doubs has finished inside the top 36 wide receivers only once (WR33). He is tenth in red zone targets among wide receivers, so it’s possible he luck boxes a touchdown this week to reverse that trend but I’m not counting on it. If Porter Jr. is glued to Watson, Doubs should see a combination of Patrick Peterson (60.5% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and Levi Wallace (58.8% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4

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DeAndre Hopkins: With Levis under center, Hopkins has had a 23.5% target share, a 40.2% air-yard share, 3.24 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Overall, Hopkins is the WR24 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets among receivers. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Mike Evans: I wrote Evans off during the off-season. Wow, he has proved me wrong. He is the WR12 in fantasy, ranking eighth in deep targets among wide receivers. He is tenth in open score. He has had a 20.9% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 2.53 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Since Week 5, the Titans have the seventh-highest rate of two-high (55.1%). Against two-high, Evans’ target share has increased to 22.2%, and his first-read share has climbed to 30.5%. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Chris Godwin: Godwin is the WR36 in fantasy, ranking seventh among wide receivers in red zone targets. Godwin has had a 22.4% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share. Against two-high looks, his target share has dropped to 20.4%, with his YPRR (1.76) and first-read share (24.8%) also dipping. Godwin is a solid WR3. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has practiced in full all week and carries no injury designation into Week 10. In Weeks 1-5, Samuel had a 21.9% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, 2.42 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share as the WR24 in fantasy. Since Week 5, the Jaguars have had the ninth-highest rate of two-high in the NFL (53.6%). Against two-high, Samuel has dominated with a 29.0% target share, a 27.9% air-yard share, 4.32 YPRR, and a 36.6% first-read share. Samuel will announce his return loudly this week with a monster game. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Calvin Ridley: Ridley has underperformed versus expectation this season as the WR41 in fantasy. He has been a WR3 or better in only 50% of his games this season. Ridley has a 20.7% target share, a 39.8% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Since Week 5, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 55.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high Ridley has seen his numbers jump across the board with a 25.8% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 29.7% first read share. Ridley also leads the team in deep targets with 13 (Kirk seven), so if Lawrence is looking to attack this secondary deep Ridley will be the main weapon. Ridley will run about 84% of his routes against Charvarius Wards (59.6% catch rate and 77.6 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (69.1% catch rate and 76.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Christian Kirk: Kirk is the WR22 in fantasy with a 21.1% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, 2.06 YPRR, and a team-leading 24.3% first-read share. Against single-high (55.3% of the 49ers snaps since Week 5), his target share drops to 16.6% (1.66 YPRR), his air-yard share falls to 22.0%, and his first-read share declines to 17.2%. Kirk will run about 72% of his routes against Isaiah Olive (87.5% catch rate and 109.5 passer rating). The plus for Kirk is that Oliver has struggled mightily in recent weeks. Since Week 5, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the third-most receiving touchdowns to slot wideouts. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Amari Cooper: In Watson’s four full games, Cooper has finished as the WR57, WR29, WR10, and WR4. In those games, Cooper has had a 22.0% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. Cooper is fifth among wideouts in deep targets, but he has drawn only five red zone targets this season (two in Watson’s four full games). Cooper will run about 76% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (64.3% catch rate and 104.5 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (62.1% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating). Baltimore has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and only two receiving touchdowns to boundary wide receivers this season. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Cedric Tillman: Tillman is an interesting deep league stash. Last week he only drew one target, but he had a 63% route run rate. His role in this offense could continue to grow as the team has been searching for a consistent secondary receiving threat all season. Week 10 Positional Value: Stash

Zay Flowers: Flowers has had back-to-back disappointing outings, dropping him to WR45 in fantasy. He is still rocking a 23.4% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 26.0% first-read share. Since Week 8, Flowers only has an 11.7% target share, and 8.5% air-yard share as Mark Andrews has been the team’s WR1. Flowers has still led the team with a 77.1% route run rate. Since Week 6, the Browns have been third in man coverage rate (42%). Against man, Flowers has had a 24.4% target share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share (leads the team). Since Week 6, the Browns have been mere mortals against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.1% catch rate and 80.6% passer rating) and Martin Emerson (39.4% catch rate and 40.8 passer rating). The Browns are a tough matchup that has stumbled recently. Flowers will have his work cut out for him this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4

Odell Beckham Jr.: Over the last two games, Beckham Jr. has remained only a part time player with a 58.6% route run rate. He has seen an 18.3% target share, a 26.9% air-yard share, and a 20.8% first-read share. Beckham Jr. hasn’t done much with the volume with only 56 total receiving yards and 1.37 YPRR. Beckham Jr. does lead the team in target per route run rate (32%) and end zone targets (four) against man coverage, so there’s a faint silver lining for Beckham Jr. in this matchup. He will run about 87% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.1% catch rate and 80.6% passer rating) and Martin Emerson (39.4% catch rate and 40.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Week 10 Running Back Start/Sit Grades

Jerome Ford: Ford reclaimed his lead role last week with 64% of the snaps played 25 touches and 77 total yards. The problem is Ford still isn’t 100% and it’s showing in his tackle breaking metrics. Last week he didn’t have an explosive run while he struggled with 1.65 yards after contact against a pushover run defense. We could see Ford bounce back this week if he is closer to full strength. In Weeks 1-7, he was one of the most explosive runners in the NFL. Among 59 qualifying backs, he was 16th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Ford will face off against an average Baltimore run defense. Since Week 5 the Ravens have the ninth-best stuff rate, but they are also 15th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Ford is a good bet for 20 touches again this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

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Kareem Hunt: With Ford inching closer to healthy, Hunt’s snaps declined (29%) as he finished last week with 14 touches and 38 total yards. Hunt is cooked at this stage of his career. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 44th in missed tackles forced per attempt and dead last in yards after contact per attempt. Hunt’s best asset currently is his red zone role with the team. Last week he had three red zone opportunities versus Ford’s two. Maybe the red zone leans back in Ford’s direction this week, but Hunt should still stay involved inside the 20-yard line. Since Week 5 the Ravens have the ninth-best stuff rate, but they are also 15th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Hunt should log 10-15 touches this week with the shot at a touchdown. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3

Gus Edwards: Edwards is the RB26 in fantasy, ranking 33rd in opportunity share and 34th in weighted opportunity. Edwards is also 19th in red zone touches. He has run hot with touchdowns over the last three games with six scores. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards played only 18% of the snaps last week after not playing less than 50% of the snaps in his last three games. This can be attributed to Baltimore blowing the doors off Seattle last week. Edwards should smash the Browns, who, since Week 5, have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Justice Hill: In the three games prior to last week’s blowout, Hill had played a complementary role to Edwards averaging eight touches and 46 total yards. He was out touched 13 to 4 in the red zone in those games with Edwards hogging all the work inside the 20. Among 45 qualifying backs, Hill is 27th in explosive run rate and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. He is a low-end flex play and only gets mild consideration in 12 team leagues because the rushing matchup is that good. Since Week 5, the Browns have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3/4

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell could very well turn out to be a stretch run difference maker, but we need to see him work into this backfield in a non-blowout game. Last week he played only 14 snaps with ten touches and 134 total yards. With Edwards playing well I doubt Mitchell pushes him out of the picture, but it’s possible he can hop Hill and take over his role. For now, stash him and see how his role evolves. Week 10 Positional Value: Stash

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has fallen to RB24 in fantasy as the Falcons have continued with their usage shenanigans. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has played 74% and 61% of the snaps, averaging 12 touches and 60.5 total yards. I could rant here for days about the usage of this backfield, but I’ll take the high road. Robinson remains one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, ranking 12th in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. I will continue to invest in that type of talent despite the headache-inducing usage so far this season. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points via rushing and the 12th-highest yard per carry to zone runs (Robinson 65% zone) while also having the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Robinson is an RB1/2 that could finish in the top three this week if ole Arthur can get out of his own way. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tyler Allgeier: Over the last two weeks, Allgeier has played 22% and 35% of the snaps while averaging 11 touches and 30.5 total yards. He has out-touched Robinson five to two over the last two weeks in the red zone. No, it doesn’t make any sense, but you know the name of the game here. Add in that Allgeier isn’t as explosive as Robinson, and the head-scratching continues. Among 45 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 37th in explosive run rate and 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Allgeier is a decent flex option this week, even if the backfield shifts more in Robinson’s favor. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points via rushing while also having the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3

James Conner: Conner was limited in practice all week (knee). Everything points to Conner returning this week. In Weeks 1-4, with Conner healthy, he was the RB21 in fantasy, averaging 18 touches and 87 total yards. Conner has been amazing when available this season, ranking third in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Atlanta has been 16th in explosive run rate while allowing the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Conner 51.5% gap). Assuming he is fully healthy, Conner should see at least 15 touches this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

David Montgomery: Montgomery practiced in full on Wednesday. I expect him to be back this week and play his usual role. In Weeks 1-5, he averaged 23.3 touches and 104.6 total yards while playing at least 71% of the snaps in three of four games. Among 45 qualifying backs, Montgomery is 19th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. I would love to tell you that Montgomery will return to a 70% snap role this week, but we could see more Gibbs this week, especially considering the matchup. If the Lions do get up early, Montgomery would be the one grinding away the clock. The Chargers have been a run defense to avoid all season. Since Week 5, they have continued to shut down backs with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest stuff rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Montgomery is still a good bet for at least 15 touches and goal-line work this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

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Jahmyr Gibbs: This is a new world that we are living in. One in which people have ceased to gripe about Gibbs in fantasy. Yeah, averaging 25.5 touches and 157.5 total yards over your last two starts while playing at least 70% of the snaps in each can do that. In Weeks 1-4, in the three games in which Montgomery was active, Gibbs averaged 11.6 touches and 55.6 total yards playing 27-48% of the snaps. Gibbs has proven he can carry the load in Montgomery’s absence. I expect that this backfield will be closer to an even split moving forward while also understanding that game script will play a big role in each back’s usage. Gibbs has been exceptional this season with the ball in his hands. He is first in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt. He is also seventh in receiving grade, 17th in YPRR, and 13th in missed tackles forced in the passing game. Since Week 5, the Chargers have continued to shut down backs on the ground with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest stuff rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. The area that they have had issues defending is backs in the passing game. Los Angeles has allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. Gibbs should return RB2 value this week with upside for more if Detroit feeds him in the passing game early. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB7 in fantasy, ranking 11th in snap share and opportunity share. Since his return to the lineup, Ekeler has played 63-68% of the snaps, averaging 17.8 touches and 75.3 total yards. Since Ekeler’s return in Week 6, he has looked like a shadow of himself, ranking 35th in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt. Detroit has shown some weakness in the run defense department recently, but since Week 5, they are still one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Over their last five games, they have allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the ninth-lowest fantasy points via rushing. Week 10 Positional Value: Low-end RB1

Tony Pollard: My preseason RB1 has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this season. He is RB18 in fantasy and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Since Dallas has skewed more pass-heavy (Week 6), Pollard has retained his lead role, playing at least 77% of the snaps if we take out the blowout win against the Rams. He has averaged 16.3 touches and 76 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is 20th in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Luckily for Pollard, the Giants remain putrid against the run. Since Week 5, they have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate and the highest yards before contact per attempt with the eighth-lowest stuff rate. Pollard ran for 5.0 yards per carry with two scores against this defense in Week 1. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Week 10 Tight End Start/Sit Grades

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson has emerged as a full-time player in this offense and the team’s clear second receiving option behind only Lamb. Over the last two games, Ferguson has had a 17.9% target share, 1.73 YPRR, and an 18.2% first read share. All of those figures are second to only Lamb. Against man coverage, Ferguson has shined with a 19.8% target share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 20.3% first-read share this season. New York has given up the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends this season. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE12 in fantasy with a 15.2% target share (17th) and an 11.0% air-yard share (17th). Thomas ranks seventh in deep targets and 12th in red zone looks among tight ends. Seattle is a favorable matchup, allowing the seventh-highest receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Michael Mayer: Since his Week 6 breakout, Mayer has had a 58% route run rate, an 11.4% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 10.9% first read share. The passing volume concerns also extend to Mayer, who drew only two targets and finished with 11 scoreless receiving yards last week. Mayer is a touchdown-or-bust TE2 at this juncture. New York is 19th in receiving yards per game and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2

Dalton Kincaid: Since Week 7, Kincaid has been a revelation with a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. Over his last three games, he has been the TE7 in fantasy with four red zone looks. Kincaid should eat again this week against a pass defense that has allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Hunter Henry: Henry has three TE1 weeks on his resume this season, including last week’s TE11 finish. Henry finished Week 9 with a 15.9% target share as he got into the end zone for the third time this season. Henry’s 88% snap share was his highest mark since Week 2. He is 14th in receiving grade and 26th in YPRR. The Colts have the second-highest rate of Cover 3 this season (50.3%, per Fantasy Points Data). Against Cover 3, Henry has seen a 14.3% target share and a 15.8% first-read share (each second on the team) with 1.88 YPRR. Henry could lead the team in targets this week. Indy has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE8 in fantasy, ranking fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, Schultz is 12th in target share (16.8%), tenth in YPRR (1.76), first in end zone targets (eight), and 14th in first-read share (16.6%). The Bengals have been a wonderful matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the third-highest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1