Biden performed even worse than expectations
How well likely voters who watched the debate expected each candidate to perform before the debate (lighter circle) versus how well they thought each candidate actually performed (darker circle)
We asked respondents how they expected each candidate to do, and how they actually did, on a five-point scale from “excellent” to “terrible” and converted each answer to a number on a 1-to-5 scale. “Excellent” was equal to 5, “very good” was equal to 4, “about average” was equal to 3, “poor” was equal to 2 and “terrible” was equal to 1. Scores were then averaged to create overall scores for each candidate. Respondents who answered “don’t know” to the expectations or performance questions were excluded.
538 and Ipsos polled the same likely voters both before and after the debate and asked them similar questions in order to make clean, before-and-after comparisons. For example, before the debate, we asked voters how they expected each candidate to perform on a five-point scale from “excellent” to “terrible.” Then, after the debate, we asked debate watchers to grade Biden’s and Trump’s performances on the same scale.
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By this metric, Biden turned in the worst debate performance of the cycle (worse than any of the Republican presidential candidates did in any primary debates). On average, he received a performance score of 1.99 out of 5, which was also even worse than his already-low expectations score of 2.62 out of 5 among the same respondents.3Average scores were calculated by assigning a 1-to-5 score to each answer to the expectations and performance questions (where “excellent” was equal to 5, “very good” was equal to 4, “about average” was equal to 3, “poor” was equal to 2 and “terrible” was equal to 1) and then averaging them. Respondents who answered “don’t know” to the expectations or performance questions were excluded.
Trump, meanwhile, slightly outperformed his expectations. Going into the debate, he had an expectations score of 3.00 out of 5, on average, among likely voters who eventually watched the debate. Those same voters gave him a performance grade of 3.04 out of 5 — so not great, but not bad either.
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Biden’s debate performance appears to have exacerbated concerns about whether he is too old to be president. We also asked poll respondents to evaluate the candidates’ fitness for the presidency on a similar five-point scale.4The options here were “excellent,” “good,” “mixed,” “poor” and “terrible.” We calculated average scores the same way we did for debate expectations and performance. On average, likely voters (this time, both those who watched the debate and those who didn’t watch) gave him a score of 2.23 out of 5 on physical fitness, down from 2.32 before the debate, and a score of 2.27 on mental fitness, down from 2.40.
On the flip side, voters now see Trump as fitter for the presidency. On average, his physical fitness score went from 3.06 before the debate to 3.16 after it, and his mental fitness score went from 2.79 to 2.88. Biden does have a slight edge over Trump when it comes to who voters see as more emotionally fit for office, but those scores didn’t meaningfully change after the debate: On average, Biden got a score of around 2.8 and Trump got around 2.6, both before and after.
Source: https://t-tees.com
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