2022 set to be among the top 10 hottest years for the world

In the first 11 months of this year, the period for which 2022 data is available so far from NASA, the year has turned out to be 0.92 degrees Celsius warmer than that normal, which is taken as the average temperature in the 1951-1980 period. This makes 2022 the fifth warmest year since 1880 for the period up to November. To be sure, 2022 being ranked “only” fifth is not a sign of global warming taking a break. The 10-year moving average for January-November mean temperatures was the highest ever in the 10 years ending 2022.

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These trends up to November are in line with a provisional forecast made by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) last month that estimated that 2022 would likely be the fifth or sixth warmest year on record. While it is not possible to check how close to either of these ranks the globe is so far in December, preliminary observed data of mean temperature from Europe shows December so far to be slightly warmer than usual. 10 of 37 countries (such as Portugal, Italy, and Turkey) for which this analysis was possible are experiencing their top ten hottest Decembers since 1950. To be sure, the UK, where weather turned mild only this week, is on average experiencing a December three degrees colder than normal so far.

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This has happened despite a not-so-hot November in the southern hemisphere…

A month-wise breakup shows that 2022 has been record breaking despite a relatively cooler November. All months up to October this year were among the top 10 hottest in recorded history; six months were among the top five hottest; and June, July, and August were the top two hottest . November was an exception, and was only the 14th hottest in 2022, largely because the southern hemisphere spring (it runs from September to November) ended on a relatively cooler note.

…and the cooling effect of La Niña

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On the surface, it might appear relaxing that 2022 will end up “only” the fifth warmest when the planet is said to be warming at an unprecedented pace. However, the context in which 2022 is ranking this high is actually alarming. 2022 is the third consecutive year of La Niña, a weather phenomenon where the tropical Pacific Ocean undergoes periodic cooling near the west coast of South America, drawing down the global average by itself and by cooling parts of the globe. This means that 2022 should have been cooler than it has been. There are numbers which show this. The occurrence and strength of a La Niña is measured by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a three-month running average of temperature deviation in the region of the Pacific Ocean described above. When ONI turns more negative than -0.5, a La Niña even is said to be taking place. The more negative ONI becomes, the stronger the La Niña is. This year ONI has always been more negative than -0.8. The last time, ONI had such values was in 2011, which is ranked only the 18th hottest (by January-November temperature) since 1880.

Clearly, despite La Nina, there was no halt in global warming. A map of the world shows that most of Europe and Asia was warmer by at least two degrees this year compared to normal. 15 of 151 countries for which this analysis is possible (most of the 15 are western European countries such as Switzerland, Belgium, and France) were at least 2.5 degrees warmer than normal. In terms of ranking, this has been among the top five warmest years for 64 countries, and the warmest on record for 24 countries.

Mean temperature for India is ranked much higher than maximum and minimum

HT reported on December 19 that 2022 so far is the 13th coldest since 1951 by maximum temperature and 30th hottest by minimum temperature (these ranks roughly hold true even for the period up to November). As HT explained, these ranks do not mean that Indians enjoyed pleasant weather in 2022. However, these headline numbers do hide how temperature behaved between the maximum and minimum. The NASA dataset does not have this problem because it is generated from the average temperature of the entire day (the raw data is collected and supplied to NASA by the IMD, but not published publicly). This shows that 2022 is actually the fifth warmest since 1880 for India, and 0.94 degrees warmer than the 1951-1980 average. Just like for the planet, the four warmest years for India (for the January-November period) are also recent years. They are 2010, 2016, 2009, and 2017.

Source: https://t-tees.com
Category: WHY