Last week, Sam Vecenie and I unveiled our first preseason Top 25. Y’all had feedback. Aztecs were angered. It was cool to see the response to a Top 25 in August, and we felt we should keep the conversation going.

So … let’s mailbag.

You are viewing: Why Isnt Maryland Ranked

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Who outside the preseason Top 25 could be in the Top 10 by end of the year? Do you see anyone like Marquette that might make the unexpected leap? — Shawn G.

I can’t quit TCU. The Horned Frogs were my sleeper pick to go on an NCAA Tournament run last season, and Jamie Dixon quietly had one of the best offseasons in the portal. Last season, TCU’s A game was the best in the Big 12. The Frogs smoked Kansas by 23 at Allen Fieldhouse and beat every team in the league except Iowa State. Unfortunately, they also lost to everyone except Texas Tech. The last two years they’ve lost in the second round to really good teams — top-seeded Arizona in 2022 and Gonzaga in 2023 — and easily could have won either game. So this core has been on the cusp of the Sweet 16.

Dixon returns five players who started at least one game for him last year in Emanuel Miller, JaKobe Coles, Chuck O’Bannon Jr., Micah Peavy and Xavier Cork. Then he brought in three significant transfers: Avery Anderson III, Jameer Nelson Jr. and Ernest Udeh Jr.. Anderson was expected to be an All-Big 12 player a year ago but dealt with a wrist injury and never seemed to get in a great rhythm. I’ve heard he’s looking great at TCU. It’s always good to be old at point guard, and Nelson is in his fifth college season and has started 97 games.

Only one guy in the portal justified Bill Self losing Udeh, and that was Hunter Dickinson. So it worked out for the Jayhawks, but they really didn’t want to lose Udeh. He is a disruptor defensively and was developing into a really good rim-roller. TCU was the best transition team in the country last season, and Udeh can scoot. Outside of Kansas, the Miller-Udeh front court is the Big 12’s best. TCU also landed freshman Jace Posey; the son of James Posey was one of the best athletes I saw on the grassroots circuit. Defensively, this team should be awesome. So many athletes. So much length. Shooting has been and will continue to be the big question mark, but I really like how this roster fits together.

Which unranked Big Ten team has the best chance of finishing in the top 25? It seems to me that there is more opportunity for upward mobility in the conference than most years as numerous teams lost a lot of production (e.g. Indiana, Michigan, Penn State) — Brendan D.

Four ACC teams in the preseason Top 25 … Any sleepers in the conference that could play themselves into the rankings? — Tyler J.

I’ll go even further. I’ll give you one sleeper from every high-major league (except the Big 12, where I already chose TCU) and then a mid-major.

ACC: Clemson. P.J. Hall is the best returning player on a team outside our Top 25. He’s a matchup nightmare as a skilled center who can step out and make a 3 (39.8 percent last season) and crush around the basket. The Tigers return eight of their top 11 and got two impact transfers in Joseph Girard III (Syracuse) and Jack Clark (NC State). Girard provides the shooting that they lost in Hunter Tyson. No longer having Tyson is probably my biggest worry, because he was a rock. But the Tigers went 14-6 in the ACC last season and are old, their pieces fit together, they have a solid point guard in Chase Hunter and Hall is a stud.

Big Ten: Indiana or Maryland. The Terrapins return three standouts in Jahmir Young, Julian Reese and Donta Scott. Those three have a combined 10 seasons and 268 starts. Kevin Willard also signed two top-100 guards, and Jordan Geronimo was a solid add as an energy guy who’s an elite athlete. Their floor is higher than Indiana, and they’re more likely to end up spending more weeks in the Top 25.

Read more : Why Does Fort Wayne Water Taste Bad

Indiana’s ceiling might be higher. I’m buying all the Malik Reneau stock. He’s Indiana’s next star. Why is Maryland the safer pick? Shooting. IU ranked 354th in 3-point rate and then lost their three top players in 3s made (Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates and Jalen Hood-Schifino). The Hoosiers were Top 25 good without making a lot of 3s last year — but just barely.

Big East: Xavier. The health of Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter worries me and is why we didn’t rank the Musketeers, but I have faith in Sean Miller to figure things out. Former North Texas big man Abou Ousmane provides insurance in the frontcourt. Desmond Claude is a potential breakout sophomore. Miller landed two solid transfer guards out of Conference USA in Dayvion McKnight and Quincy Olivari. That’s the same league, it should be noted, that Souley Boum played in. I was also a big fan of freshman Trey Green on the Nike circuit. He really guards and plays with the kind of motor that fits the program and coach. Another team to watch is Providence. Vecenie is a buyer there.

Pac-12: USC. The Trojans have the potential to make us look dumb for leaving them out. They have an awesome backcourt with Isaiah Collier, the nation’s highest-rated incoming freshman, joining Boogie Ellis. I’m not as convinced that Bronny James is an instant-impact guy, but with his health scare and the crazy pressure he’ll be under, I’m pulling for him. It might be best if he misses a few games, USC starts hot and then he can come off the bench without anyone questioning it. Andy Enfield has one of his most talented rosters, and he’s made three straight NCAA Tournaments. This team was very, very close to making our Top 25.

SEC: Mississippi State. (Shoutout to Trilly Donovan, who’s a believer in the Bulldogs.) This was an elite defensive team last season with a very good scoring big man in Tolu Smith. The rest of the offense struggled, but Chris Jans got some help with Marshall transfer Andrew Taylor. Taylor’s shooting and confidence is exactly what the Bulldogs needed. One other newcomer to watch is guard Trey Fort, the top incoming junior college transfer, per 247Sports. It’s hard to project juco guys at the high-major level, but every once in a while one hits big. This is a team I’ll be watching closely early.

Mid-major: The easy pick here is San Diego State, but it’s hard to label the Aztecs a mid-major. Plus, I’m about to write about them next, so let’s go with Drake. Tucker DeVries is one of the best scorers in the country, and his dad signed three mid-major transfers who were double-digit scorers at their previous schools — two of whom led their previous teams in scoring. Drake lost a lot — big man Darnell Brodie is the only other returning starter — but this is just a big bet on DeVries the player and Darian DeVries the coach.

San Diego State made the national championship game, returns 3 starters and got the Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year. How could they be left off? — Ben L.

San Diego State fans made the most noise in our mentions last week, and I get it. Brian Dutcher has probably done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt, and we should just assume, no matter the roster, he’ll have a Top 25-level team. He’s made four out of five NCAA Tournaments as the head coach, and would have had a top-2 seed in the canceled 2020 tournament. He’s finished 30th, 25th and 14th since at KenPom. That program is about as consistent as it gets putting together elite defenses. The Aztecs have also been really smart at who they target in the portal, and so we should probably assume Reese Dixon-Waters will be even better in a SDSU uniform than he was at USC.

Our concern is what the Aztecs lost. They weren’t a great offensive team, but Matt Bradley could often bail them out when a possession went stale. Keshad Johnson was such a weapon on the defensive end because of his switchability, and he likely would have been a guy who saw his offensive role increase. He’s drawn rave reviews at Arizona and looked really good this summer in Zona’s games overseas. Nathan Mensah was by far the team’s best rim protector. Not one returning player has a block rate over 3 percent. I like the potential of Jaedon LeDee, and he’s an upgrade at center offensively, but Mensah’s length at the basket will be missed. This is likely still a really good defensive team but probably not as elite as a year ago.

We definitely considered the Aztecs, and they’re in my top 30. Sure, past performance matters, but this is more of a prediction of who will be the best 25 teams in the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Diego State is one of those teams, and I’m sure most other preseason polls have them there. I tried not to look at other polls before putting this together, because I don’t want to be influenced by groupthink. That’s probably why our rankings look different than most.

How many of these top 25 teams are legit national championship contenders? — Tim C.

Right now I’d feel good about eight: Kansas, Marquette, Duke, Purdue, Tennessee, Michigan State, UConn and Arizona.

What’s the over/under on the number of Top 25 teams who will be, at best, bubble teams come March? — Tom W.

I looked back at the last five preseason AP Top 25s, not including 2019-2020. On average, five ranked teams missed the NCAA Tournament. It has been five each of the last two seasons, including last year’s preseason No. 1, North Carolina. So my answer should probably be five, but I’d like to think Sam and I can fare better than that. I’ll say three.

Read more : Why Is My Xfinity Modem Blinking Green

Leading bust candidates: Kentucky (too young), North Carolina (we’ve seen it before), UCLA (youth), Miami (not enough depth, plus Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller were really important), Texas (depth concerns) and Virginia (worried about the offense).

Are any of Kansas’ returning starters (Kevin McCullar Jr., KJ Adams, Dajuan Harris Jr.) significantly improved as 3-point shooters over last year? If not, can they really stay on the floor together with Hunter Dickinson given the need for spacing around him? — Jeffrey M.

I think all three have improved, based off what I saw from watching the games in Puerto Rico. Adams made 2-of-3 3s on the trip, and he’s smoothed out his release and eliminated his hitch. I’m skeptical he’ll actually take 3s in regular-season games, but I’ll bet on his free-throw percentage going up and him being willing to fire a few mid-range Js. It looks like McCullar isn’t pausing as much at the top of his shot, and the early reviews are good. His shot is the biggest reason he’s still in school, so you can bet he’s putting in the time. His shot is probably the most important of this group, and how he starts is really important for his confidence. Harris’ release also looks slightly elevated. He simply needs to be able to make the wide-open ones, and he proved last year he can make enough to make defenses pay. (He made only 30 3s but at a solid 40.3 percent.)

Shooting is definitely the concern with this roster, but after watching the Puerto Rico games, I’m more convinced the offense can work even if the shooting is just mediocre. This is going to be a really good transition team that gets a lot of fast-break opportunities. McCullar and Harris will just take your ball, and Self has a ton of team speed with those two plus Adams, Arterio Morris and Elmarko Jackson. The other reason to believe: This is a really good passing and cutting team. The Jayhawks will play a lot through Dickinson, and he’s going going to get doubled and he’s going to make the right play. The smart tactic would be to sag off everyone on the perimeter and hope the Jayhawks miss shots, but the tendency of defenders is to close out, even against bad shooters. And this team is going to crush scrambling defenses. Watch this sequence:

So much basketball IQ and experience among Self’s first four, and the Jayhawks should also be a really good offensive rebounding team. It’s not easy to be an elite offense as a mediocre shooting team, but this just might be the group to pull that off.

How could you rank UNC at all? They were awful last year. — Kevin Y.

The Tar Heels were a dumpster fire considering the expectations last season. I still have nightmares from watching the Alabama game early. The shot selection. Make it stop!!! I do think it was healthy for both parties for Caleb Love to move on. I still believe in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. Those are two really good, really old college basketball players. That’s a great place to start with any team. I feel a little uneasy about any team that needs to rely a lot on a freshman, and I’ve never seen Elliot Cadeau play, but Vecenie is a believer. Cormac Ryan is a very good shooter who has made 212 3s in his career at a 35.2 percent clip. Ryan is not Brady Manek, but he’s an actual floor spacer, which Pete Nance was not last year. I’m not sold on Harrison Ingram, but he’s a former five-star who fits better next to Bacot than Nance did.

And through UNC’s work in the portal, the Heels have actual depth. This roster just makes more sense than it did last season. But the pressure is on, and getting off to a good start will be important. This is a big year for Davis and the program. Davis could lose the fans if he misses the tournament again or just barely squeezes in. He’s still got plenty to prove, because the further he gets away from 2022 the more people will say his team just got hot for a few weeks. I’m not ready to write him off, although I am a big believer that you never simply limit your candidate list to only include those in the family.

Why is Michigan State getting top 5 buzz? I get they have a great coach and an old roster returning a lot of minutes. However, they lost Hauser, and another year older =/= vast improvement every time. Had they lost to Marquette (a game in which Tyler Kolek was clearly a bit dinged), would they be getting any of this same buzz? — Suzanne W.

This is fair. The loss of Joey Hauser shouldn’t be overlooked. Michigan State scored 1.05 points per possession with him on the floor and dropped to 0.92 PPP when he was on the bench, per hooplens.com’s data. The Spartans shot 40.8 percent from 3 with him on the floor and 30.5 percent without him. You have to be careful relying too much on on/off numbers, but it’s not often you see such drastic splits like those.

Malik Hall is the only player on this roster who has experienced winning more than 11 Big Ten games. This core hasn’t been better than a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I saw some pushback about ranking Marquette over Michigan State; my response is that season-long results should matter more than just one game. Marquette finished 10th at KenPom.com. Michigan State was 26th. Both return four starters. I watched a lot of the Golden Eagles last year, and that second-round loss was one of their worst performances. They also won the Big East regular season and tournament titles and beat Connecticut twice.

As for Sparty, this is an old team with one of college basketball’s most consistent coaches. Michigan State last missed the NCAA Tournament in 1997. The recruiting class is really good, and while I try not to overreact about incoming freshmen, the best blend is really talented young guys paired with capable veterans. Michigan State’s roster is worthy of a Top 10 ranking, and that’s without even factoring in Tom Izzo. Maybe this team doesn’t play to expectations, but I’d bet the floor is somewhere around a No. 5 seed.

(Top photo of Indiana’s Malik Reneau and Maryland’s Donta Scott: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

Source: https://t-tees.com
Category: WHY